SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 20th week of the
Primary 1
cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is
aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 20th week, May 20th appears
to have been the crest and we are headed down into the nominal 18 week
cycle trough. At this point, following
are the highs in the US
indexes.
DJIA May 19, 2015
DJTI Nov 28, 2014
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015
RUT Jun 18, 2015
On the above chart we had
mentioned Neptune turning retrograde (turned
on June 12th) is often associated with double tops and double bottoms. The lows
on June 9th and June 15th in the SP500 are good examples of a double bottom.
On the above chart price of the
SP500 did dip below the 15 and 45 day sma's and the 15 day sma was briefly
lower than the 45 day sma. This could be
read as a very shallow Primary cycle trough. Bear that in mind over the
next couple of week. I think we should see the SP500 index lower for the final
trough.
I was looking at 2080, 2066 or 2050 as potential targets
for this Primary cycle trough for the SP500. We did dip below 2080. We do have a potent aspect on Monday, that
is the Jupiter trine Uranus aspect. As mentioned this is most often associated
with highs so we may see a rise on Monday but I'm looking for a move down next
week. We will still have the Saturn semi-square Pluto aspect in orb. That's a
weak aspect between 2 strong planets. This is much heavier and more in line
with a falling market, or at least one that is not rising.
From last weeks market letter
"I'm expecting the major US Neptune
turning Retrograde and now we move down into the nominal 18 week and 168 td
cycle troughs. This is my preferred outlook. The FED may step in and juice the
market higher but the Astros are pointing down.
One other option is we bounce and
go up into the June 22 area where we
have Jupiter trine Uranus. This
aspect has a history of occurring near tops. This is not always the case. For
example Jupiter trine Uranus
occurred near the bottom of the October
1987 crash."
Back to this week
So we got a low on June 15th, the day after Saturn entered Scorpio. Saturn is
about restrictions and discipline while Scorpio is about other peoples money,
illness, crime and abuse. Other peoples money covers banking, stock markets,
insurance, accounting and financial services. This may take a couple of weeks
to develop, but there may be an initial shock. Watch bonds and watch out.
Both the Sun and Mars will enter Cancer this week. In mundane
Astrology Cancer rules the general public and can reflect the moods and
collective conscious of a society. When planets travel through Cancer we tend
to see fluctuations of the general mood of the people.
The nominal 18 week cycle low
should be between Now - 07/06/2015 if
it is a normal nominal 18 week cycle as the range is 15 to 21 weeks (see red
line at bottom right hand corner). Subscribers have more exact dates. There are
other indications for a move down, as seen below.
Video
The other current cycle we've been
following is the 168 td (trading
day) cycle. Like last week the chart shows two possibilities shown as a blue vertical line (May 26th) and a
black vertical line, coming up (June 18th).
I'm looking at the blue line on May 21st as being the
crest of the 168 td cycle and another indication we should be moving down.
I'm looking for continued strife
and discord. This could include social unrest, police shootings, accidents.
Water and crude have been in the news and should continue with the emphasis on Neptune in it's own sign, Pisces and Mercury, also in
it's own sign of Gemini, a mutable air sign.
Last weekend had Saturn Retrograde
moving backward into Scorpio on June
14th. Intense Scorpio does not need Saturn. This is happening while Saturn
is almost semi-square Pluto, the two thugs of the Zodiac. This is exact on June 20th and should emphasize
the Saturn / Pluto energies. These two powerful bad guys are in mutual
reception, that is Saturn is in Scorpio which Pluto rules and Pluto is in
Capricorn which Saturn rules. This gives Pluto more support and staying power
in it's role to change banking and money in general. Saturn in Scorpio creates
tension and can effect the emotions in a negative way (depression?) and a
detrimental effect on health. We could see a pandemic or other disease come to
the fore while Saturn is in Scorpio (MERS?).
.
At any rate, Neptune
is in a strong position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. As mentioned last
week this should emphasize events dealing with water, crude and Natural Gas.
Things that Neptune rules.
There are other transits pointing
to a potential stronger move down, reserved for subscribers.
In summary It is possible the nominal 18 week cycle put in
a very weak ending trough this week but I'm looking for an additional move
down. We may have seen the bounce (double
bottom) I was expecting with Neptune turning
Retrograde and now we should move down into the nominal 18 week and 168 td
cycle troughs. This is my preferred outlook. I'll ignore the FED's actions.
Remember the aspect on Monday and we could get a big move that day or close by.
The Jupiter trine Uranus aspect has more often been seen at tops but there have
been instances where it marked a bottom or very close by a bottom.
We are looking for longer term
cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should
end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as
well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are
other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for
subscribers.
Gold
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the
Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 14th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Gold put in a high on Monday May 18th, the same day as
Mercury turned retrograde and then headed down and it is still headed down with
one big up day on Thursday then a tight Doji on Friday, a sign of indecision
and potentially down.. Gold could move lower here and may have seen the top for
this nominal 18 week cycle. May 18th
may have been the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. This was also 2 td's from
the time Fib of 2.618 noted on
previous posts. This was based on the
move down in Gold from October 2012 to June 2013.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in
the summer but reserved for subscribers. That cycle and others with the placement of Jupiter in the summer
may be pointing to a strong reversal in Gold. That is we move down into the July
/ August period for a low in Gold from which a large rally commences. More work
needed here. I'm still short the Gold miners.
As noted last week, Mercury retrograde has a strong history
of changes in trend for Gold close to the retrograde date. In this case it was
to the day. The direct date also has a history of changes in Gold price.
If we have just seen the crest, Gold should be moving down
from here for a few weeks, potentially a couple of months. With the
Astrological aspects Gold may be very volatile, like the main market indices.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold was moved up on Thursday after
testing the Jupiter price line (blue) for a few days. The Doji on Friday means
indecision.
Crude
This coming week of June
22 we should be entering the 14th
week of a Primary cycle which started Mar
18, 2015.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune or Jupiter aspects. June
22nd has the very strong Jupiter
trine Uranus aspect and June 23rd
has Mercury square Neptune . Like stocks
and Gold, crude could be very volatile for the next few weeks. For example May
29th had Mercury waxing square to Neptune .
There was almost a $3 swing up on Friday.
Other Astrological dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the
shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Crude,
like other commodities is being affected by the US $ moves and news out of the
mid-East. I had heard Saudi
Arabia was going to max production which
would push prices down.
As seen on the following chart the Neptune
price line (green) continues to provide resistance to any upward move in crude.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in July) are available
for purchase.
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