Saturday, August 2, 2014

Financial Astrology - August 3, 2014

From July 13, 2014 Market letter, page 6

"Allow me to add July 28-31 to the forecast date list. This is a time period where Venus will be in T-Square to the Uranus / Pluto waxing square. Venus rules resources and money. Both may be under stress during this short period."

So we added July 28-31 to the list of forecast dates on July 13th. The following daily chart of the SP500 shows these two aspects. Venus opposition Pluto is the red double arrow and Venus squared Uranus is the red square.

So we finally got the big move we have been waiting for. Are we out of the woods? Probably not, although we may have a short term bounce this week.

From last weeks blog post.

" What is coming up in August looks nasty. I've mentioned July 20 had Saturn turning direct and July 21 Uranus turning retrograde. I've also mentioned in previous posts there is a time window around the dates of retrograde and direct movement. The above mentioned time windows extend to Aug 8 when the Sun trines Uranus and Aug 9th the Sun squares Saturn. That weekend there is another perigee Full Moon on Aug 10th (or Super Moon). Saturn is in a T-Square configuration to this Super Moon. Watched out for major accidents, violent weather and geophysical events.

The above are stressing Saturn which is in the sign of Scorpio. Both Saturn and Pluto transiting Scorpio have a history of epidemics and general health concerns. Currently there is an Ebola outbreak in Africa and a possible bubonic plague occurrence in China. With Saturn in Scorpio and Mars catching up to Saturn with a conjunction on Aug 25th, I would expect these epidemic outbreaks to worsen in the month of August.

Saturn in Scorpio can also represent changes in tax structure and problems with debt. Portugal has had some recent bank debt problems. I expect there will be more."

In addition to the above we may see increased geopolitical tensions, although it's difficult seeing them increased.

Since we are reviewing previous posts content I should mention the Primary cycle. I've been questioned by one reader why I mention the Primary cycle when this is an Astrological blog. The answer is, the stock market has cycles separate from the Astrological cycles. The Primary cycle (nominal 18 week cycle) is one of many cycles in the stock market. I use the Primary cycle, it's sub-cycles and longer term market cycles to approximate where the market will change trend. I then look at the main Astrological events that fine tune my forecast of where the market changes trend. I do this for the sub-cycles as well i.e. the Major cycle ( nominal 6 week cycle which has a range of 5-7 weeks).

Last week I brought up the subject of changing the Primary cycle count from a start on Feb 5, 2014 to May 15, 2014 for the SP500. I changed the count for the DJIA and Nasdaq as well. With the dramatic move down in all the indices we track I must reconsider the Primary cycle count.

If Feb 5th was the last Primary cycle count then this is the 25th week. This is just outside our normal range of 15-23 weeks.

If May 15th was the last Primary cycle count then this is the 11th week of a newer Primary cycle.

The Dow had a larger percentage drop and has the same Primary cycle issue. Are we in at the end of a Primary cycle which started Feb 5th or in the middle of a newer Primary which started May 15th.

To resolve this question I'm watching the retracement levels for this move down. Primary cycle troughs usually get back to the 38.2% - 61.8% retracement levels.

The following daily chart of the SP500 assumes the retracement from the May 15th date. You can see we are "in the box" between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements. In fact we are very close to the 50% level, a level which is often the trough.

The next chart is the same as above except it assumes the retracement from the Feb 15th, 2014 Primary cycle trough. This shows we have only hit the 23.6% retracement level. This would be deemed as shallow or we have quite a bit more down-side, which is quite possible.

Similar analysis can be done for the Dow or Nasdaq.

Watch these areas this week. We may get an early bounce but there are some rough transits on the week-end of Aug 9th including another perigee Full Moon (aka Super Moon -- Richard Nolle ). On the physical plane, Super Moons have been associated with geophysical events (large earthquakes and volcanic activity) and violent weather. Some would say this violence is also peeked in man's activity.

My comments on crude and key dates involving crude and mid-Eastern agreements or changes in power structure were given to subscribers a few weeks ago. They will be upon us soon.
Also mentioned were Mars and Saturn in the sign of Scorpio and their history with epidemics. These two planets will be conjunct later in the month. This may point to a peak in epidemic activity or the beginning. With Saturn involved, this latest Ebola or other epidemic may be with us for some time.

For those who are into mid-points in Astrology, the following is from COSI "Combination Of Stellar Influences" published in 1940. This is for the Mars / Saturn conjunction on the Moon / North Node mid-point.

"The system of self-defense against infection in the human body. Sufferings, disadvantages or losses through associations. Death through suffocation."

It get's worse if I look at the 90 degree mid-points which hits the Sun / Neptune 90 degree mid-points so I'll leave it at that.

Aug 25th is 1,998 cd's (calendar days) from the March 6, 2009 low on the SP500 which was 666. 1998 = 666 * 3. Watch this date.

I had mentioned problems with debt and we have continued debt problems with Portuguese banks and now Argentina. Watch closely, there should be more debt problems to come. I'm looking at Europe but there may be other countries.

Gold is in the 9th week of it's Primary cycle and may have just put in a trough for the first Major cycle (6 week, with a range of 5-7 weeks) of the Primary. Note the move down stopped on the 61.8% retracement level last Thursday and moved up on Friday, Aug 1st the day Venus squared Uranus and trined Saturn and Mars squared Jupiter. Remember Mars has just entered Scorpio and has a strong history of moves up when it is in Scorpio.

From last weeks blog.
" Any move below $1280,on strong volume and I will be out." Spot Gold bottomed at 1280.14 on Friday August 1st. The October contract bottomed at 1280.50 on the same day.

So I'm holding, but will adhere to the " Any move below $1280,on strong volume and I will be out." The move up on Friday stopped at the 45 day sma and any move down in Gold will have the 15 day sma crossing down through the 45 day sma. This would be very negative.

Where Gold goes early next week is very important. What we need to see is Gold taking out the high on July 10th then the high on March 17th (i.e. previous highs).

We may be in a symmetrical triangle, light blue lines. Price often exits a symmetrical triangle in the same direction it entered it. In this case up.

Silver is in the 10th week of it's Primary cycle. It looks like we put in a 1/2 Primary top on July 10th and are in the time frame for a 1/2 Primary bottom. We are just past the 38.2% retracement (we're in the box) of the move up from May 30th to July 10th.

We are in the 14th week of the Primary cycle in crude. The current cycle appears to be  left translated which is bearish. There is much going on with crude and the US$. A stronger US$ is not good for crude, at least WTIC.

The whole crude picture world-wide is changing. The US is becoming a major supplier while fighting in the mid-East is affecting production and transport. Turkey is accepting crude from the Kurd's who have taken over oil fields in northern Iraq during the ISIS upheaval. Turkey is loading this crude into tankers but I don't know the destination. A number of countries are preparing to trade crude and other commodities in something other than the US$. This would mean the world needs less US bucks and they become less important for international trade.

All these problems are occurring around the dates we sent to subscribers a few weeks ago. The dates concerned crude, countries producing crude, agreements between these countries including crude production and changes in head's of state of crude producing countries.

Previously I've mentioned the issue with the US$ and international trade being largely conducted in US$ for many decades. This may be changing.

Subscribers, have had critical dates for a few weeks.

There are some other issues regarding crude. There has been a dramatic increase in small earthquakes in the states of Kansas and Oklahoma. Some are pointing to waste water pumped into the ground after drilling shale projects as the problem. This situation needs to be monitored closely. The last thing we should be doing is wasting water. Neptune, which rules water, amongst other things is in it's own sign, Pisces. It's importance should increase over the next few years.

Other items, US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers.

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