For the SP500, cycle-wise we are entering the 16th week of the Primary 1 cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 16th week we should be looking for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. May 20th could have been the crest. If not the dates around May 29 - June 2nd are possible crest dates +- 2 td's
On the above chart price has broken out of the symmetrical triangle we have been following but appears stalled, perhaps due to this being close to a Primary cycle crest.
The brown line making ups and downs is an adjusted Bradley indicator (Bradley-Shramenko). This indicates a short term change in trend is due almost immediately and another, possibly longer term change due near June 8th. Keep in mind the indicator does not indicate polarity, that means, the indicator just identifies there is going to be a change in trend but does indicate direction (up or down). Give it +- 3 td's (trading days).
From last weeks market letter
"As a whole we should be looking at a potentially violent period over the next couple of weeks with the weight of the signatures pointing to a market that should move down. The question over the next 2 weeks is do we move down this coming week or does it wait until after Memorial Day? Do we get a violent event on Memorial day?
I'm looking for a short but sharp move down then continuing up in June with a potential high around June 22 when Jupiter trines Uranus."
to the mid-East and ISIS, we saw violence.
The SP500 went sideways while the DJIA, NYSE and RUT seemed to be moving lower late in the week.
I'm looking for continued strife, discord and controversy next week along with potential confusion as Mercury Retrograde continues it's backward trip through Gemini. Changeability should be a key, that is, things will change quickly. Towards the end of the week we will approach the mid-point of the retrograde period and the Sun / Mercury conjunction on May 30. This is the inferior conjunction and therefore also the heliocentric conjunction between the Sun and Mercury. Any markets that did not change during the beginning of the retrograde could see a change around the Sun / Mercury conjunction. The following chart has some history. The red arrow pointing left is the retrograde date, the blue arrow pointing right is the direct date, the red dot is the geocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction and the blue dot is the heliocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction.
This Mercury retrograde period is occurring in Gemini, a mutable air sign which Mercury rules. Mercury also rules communication, commerce and trading, that is buying and selling. It has a reputation for problems, both communication and contracts. Ray Merriman of MMA has a saying for Mercury retrograde periods, that is "Take profits too soon". That meaning, if you have made a profit don't wait until you hit resistance, get out.
The Mercury retrograde period is known to be volatile. In this instance we also have Mercury moving back from Out of Bounds, adding to the potential for increased volatility. ( see previous posts for a description of "Out of Bounds") Also, with Mars in Gemini (war of words or real war?) volatility should increase.
The coming two weeks have a number of significant Astrological signatures. Starting on May 21st through June 14th there are 10 aspects which could effect the financial markets and events in general. Other events may include shootings, accidents, fires and violence due to religious matters. Geophysical (earthquakes, volcanoes) could also increase.
The 224/225 cd cycle is still active. It was exact on April 29th but needs a broad orb of influence. The markets did go down from April 27th to May 6th but I had expected a deeper low. As seen in the history of the following chart this cycle (red vertical lines) has been very reliable in identifying moves both up and down. I expected a larger move down.
There is also a 168 td cycle hitting on May 22 but has an orb of influence from May 14th to June 15th. Note the blue vertical lines on the following chart are at approx. 168 td increments and have typically been at intermediate tops. Also note the brown line, the Bradley Shramenko has a turn on May 22 and June 8th. As noted above we've been looking for a short, sharp move down then up into late June where we have the Jupiter trine Uranus aspect.
The last few weeks we have mentioned Venus being "Out of Bounds" OOB. Venus comes back in bounds on June 2 very close to Mars going "Out of Bounds". Another potentially volatile signature and potential change in trend.
One of the aspect coming up is
Neptune turning retrograde. Neptune
is in a powerful position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. Neptune
rules crude, natural gas, water, beliefs (religious beliefs?), socialism,
communism, left-wing politics, fraud, misinformation, swindling, loss and vice,
the soul and psychic connections. It is in each sign approx. 13-14 years but it
varies quite a bit due to retrograde motion. Neptune
will be hit by a square from Mars and a square from the Sun before the
retrograde period. June 11 is Mercury turning direct and June 12th Neptune retrograde. Both have a history of trickery, lack
of truth and make it difficult determining what is going on in all walks of
life and places. This could also mark a change in trend.
We are looking for longer term cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for subscribers.
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1 trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 10th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Last week Gold put in a high on Monday May 18th, the same day as Mercury turning retrograde and then headed down. This may have been the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. This was also 2 td's from the time Fib of 2.618 noted on previous posts. This was based on the move down in Gold from October 2012 to June 2013.
Heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius usually is a period of volatility in Gold and other PM's as well. This time heliocentric Mercury enters Sagittarius on May 27 through June 7th.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in the summer but reserved for subscribers.
As noted last week, Mercury retrograde has a strong history of changes in trend for Gold close to the retrograde date.
If we have just seen the crest Gold should be moving down from here for a few weeks, potentially a couple of months. This would be opposite the US buck. With the Astrological aspects Gold may be very volatile, like the main market indices.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke back down through the Venus price line and meandering sideways the last few days. As I have pointed out many times before, when the heliocentric Venus and Jupiter price lines cross there is often a sudden move in Gold. They next cross on May 25th which has heliocentric Venus semisquare Jupiter.
This coming week of May 25 we should be entering the 10th week of a Primary cycle which started Mar 18, 2015. Note, I have changed the count from the previous weeks posts to reflect the Primary cycle stating at the low on March 18, The previous low on Jan 29th is noted as a double bottom.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune aspects and the
Neptune retrograde date. Like stocks and Gold, crude could
be very volatile for the next few weeks.
Other Astrological dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Crude, like other commodities is being affected by the
As seen on the following chart the Jupiter price line (orange) gave support and
Neptune (green) gave
resistance. I'm waiting to see if the Jupiter price line is broken (down move)
or is the Neptune price line is broken (up). If
we have seen the crest on May 6th we may be moving down.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015 dates and subscription to the monthly letter are available.